Download Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts AudioBook Free
Poker champion turned business specialist Annie Duke teaches you ways to get comfortable with uncertainty and make smarter decisions because of this. In Super Dish XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial phone calls in football record: With 26 secs left over, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard brand, he needed a pass instead of a handing off to his legend running again. The forward was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or does Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't produce the best final result every time. There's always an aspect of fortune that you can't control, and there is always information that is covered from view. Therefore the key to long-term success (and staying away from worrying yourself to loss of life) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest probability of success? Do I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a previous World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on samples from business, sports activities, politics, and (of course) poker to talk about tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make smarter decisions. For many people, it's difficult to state "I'm not sure" in a world that principles, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great final results and bad decisions don't always lead to bad final results. By shifting your thinking from a dependence on certainty to an objective of accurately examining what you understand and what you do not, you will be less susceptible to reactive feelings, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your final decision making. You'll are more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run. Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
