Download Everything Is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer AudioBook Free
Why is the Mona Lisa the most well-known painting on the globe? Why does Facebook be successful when other social-networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO's impact the performance of the companies? And does indeed higher pay incentivize people to work hard? If you think the answers to these questions are a subject of good sense, reconsider. As sociologist and network research pioneer Duncan Watts clarifies in this provocative reserve, the explanations that we give for the final results that we view in life - explanation that seem noticeable once we know the answer - are less useful than they seem to be. Sketching on the latest technological research, plus a prosperity of historical and modern-day examples, Watts shows how good sense reasoning and record conspire to mislead us into thinking that we understand more about the world of real human action than we do; and in turn, why makes an attempt to anticipate, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems frequently go awry. It seems noticeable, for example, that folks respond to bonuses; yet policy makers and managers likewise frequently fail to foresee how people will react to the bonuses they create. Community trends often seem to be to obtain been powered by certain important people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these "influencers" in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem to be in retrospect to obtain succeeded because of their unique characteristics, predicting the characteristics of another strike product or hot company is notoriously difficult, even for experienced pros. Only by focusing on how and when good sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how exactly we plan for the future, as well as understand the present - an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in research and everyday activities.
