Download Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction AudioBook Free
In one of the world's most respectable social researchers, a transformative booklet on the habits of mind that business lead to the best predictions. Everyone would reap the benefits of seeing further in to the future, whether buying stocks and shares, crafting policy, releasing a fresh product, or simply planning the week's foods. Unfortunately people have a tendency to be horrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock proved in a landmark 2005 analysis, even experts' predictions are only slightly much better than chance. However, an important and underreported realization of that analysis was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has put in the past ten years trying to figure out why. Why is some people so good? And can this skill be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner give you a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Wisdom Project involves thousands of normal people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired tube installer, and a past ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global situations. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, opponents, and prediction market segments. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence experts with usage of classified information. They may be "superforecasters". With this groundbreaking and accessible booklet, Tetlock and Gardner show us how exactly we can study from this elite group. Superforecasting supplies the first demonstrably effective way to improve our capacity to predict the future - whether in business, money, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and it is destined to become modern classic.
